7/7 Trading Recap

First real trade in awhile.  After doing some back-testing and realizing that my edge was in the TF (Russell 2000) where I originally started, I decided to take my first trade on the TF.  I would give myself 4 our of 5 on this trade because I pulled it off one point early.

One thing you can see from the chart below is that I potentially left a lot on the table.  I would like to one day increase my ability to judge when to hold longer, but for now am trying to just stick to the parameters of my system.  See the below chart.

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06/08 Trading Recap

Maybe worst trading yet (mentally anyways) for me.  It is incredible how tough trading can feel sometimes.  When I trade my system I make money.  When I don’t, I usually lose money.  So, I made a promise to Erin this weekend that I would try to simply trade my system.  Nothing more, nothing less.  Instead of focusing on profits and losses, I would focus on execution.  I couldn’t even do that.  Yesterday I attempted 3 of the 4 trade signals in one way but it was not even close to really following it.

Today, at 9:45 I got my first signal to short from the 15 min chart.  Not only is this a legit signal, but the 15 min chart has been on fire lately (as well as my system in general).  What’s my first instinct?  I actually tried to fade the signal with real money.  I bought and only after getting -1.5 pts in the trade did I decide to bail and luckily got out for a scratch trade.  This is crazy and quite possibly insane.  What is it that makes me look at my statistics and see a path to a profitable career and yet continue to sabotage myself?  I talk a mean talk, but currently have an incredibly weak walk.  I continued to let another profitable trade signal go by with no action from my 5 min globex chart.  That’s $1k I just let slip through my fingers because I was unable to pull the trigger on my researched system that I’ve spent the last 2 yrs of my life developing and studying.

I know they say that many traders have to hit rock bottom before they can succeed.  I really hope I’m close here.  This has the potential to be a real turning point for me in my career.  I can admit that where I’m at in my existing career, I am not adding value to my system.  I can admit that it will take lots of work for me if I want to be a successful trader and can step up and journal and do homework to see what I’m going to need to succeed or I can continue on my existing path.  That would include not trading my system in a disciplined manner.  Taking random trades whenever my impulses get the best of me and just gamble my savings away.  Not do the homework of documenting every trade setup and what I think will happen.

Trade #1 – Buy 1052.50, Sell 1052.50.  I take trade signals for percent r from a 5 min globex chart and a 15 min RTH chart.  I have documented statistics on the results of these trades.  I watch a 5 min RTH and see that it has similar results but have yet to put in any serious homework on this chart.  As I was watching this chart, I noticed that the it gave a percent r short signal at 9:35 (although none of my real signal charts did).  Whenever this happens on my legit charts, it is the worst time to get a signal and usually a great fade.  Well after watching it for 10 min nothing really happened and the trade was still in play.  However, my 15 min chart gave a short signal at 9:45 now.  This is where instead of taking the trade from a studied and documented system, I decide to take a signal from a chart setup and zero research on.  I’m very lucky I got for a break-even trade.  Result:  Scratch.

Very relevant post from Electronic Local:    http://electroniclocal.blogspot.com/2010/06/yips.html

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06/07 Trading Recap

My Trades:

Trade #1 – Buy 1061, Sell 1064.50.  This was based on the fact that the TF had confirmed but the ES gap chart had only setup.  Got long 1061 and could have held for more but was a nice trade to catch +3.5 pts.  Result: +$350

Trade #2 – Short 1069.75 (1), Buy 1069.75 (1).  This was based on the 15 min chart and is a perfect example why I have 2.5 pts from the entry as my break-even and why I have to be careful with pulling something off a little early.  The mechanical entry was 1069.25.  I sat on it and got in 2 ticks better.  Once I got +2.5 pts in my trade (but only +2 pts from the mechanical entry) I moved the stop to break-even.  The ES came back and stopped me out as it went 1 tick higher than my entry to 1070 before dropping big time to reach the ultimate target.  Result: Scratch

Trade #3 – Buy 1064.25, Sell 1063.25.  This was an attempt as the 15 min chart re “setup”.  Result: -$100

Trade #4 – Buy 1061, Sell 1064.  Result: +$300

Trade #5 – Buy 1063.50, Sell 1063.  Another percent R signal that I didn’t like but I gave a shot.  Was able to come out only -2 ticks.  Result -$50

Trade #6 – Short 1062.50, Buy 1059.50.  Percent R signal that chickened out on and only got 3 pts although it went on to my target of 5 pts.  Result: +$300

System Trade Review:

Trade #1 – 9:50 Short 1064.50, Buy 1067.50 – The market reversed at what seems to be the normal reversal time of 9:45.  The ES gap chart had just “setup” and the push down and then the up move was very severe which normally do not work well with this setup.  So, taking into account those circumstances, I was not feeling positive about the trade and it failed.

Trade #2 – 10:15 Short 1069.25, Buy 1064.25 – I really was not feeling confident about this trade either but I was wrong.  After having the strong bounce and taking into account it being Monday, I thought the bounce could continue.  Also, although this was the first “mechanical” signal for the setup, there had already been a very profitable “almost” signal.  Most of the time, the “almost” signal ends up being the only profitable one, but this did work well, though not without it’s challenges.

Trade #3 – 1:45 Buy 1065, Sell 1062.  I didn’t like this trade as was during the lunch chop, and the day wasn’t really a trend type of day.  Plus it immediately was not working.

Trade #4 – 2:30 Short 1062.50, Buy 1057.50.  I liked the short even though we weren’t really trending because we still had plenty of room to the LOD (1057.50).  The bounce was off the IB low, but I like these plays after 2:00 that are making a move against the IB.  One thing I did while actually in the trade was pull the trade off for +3 vs waiting for the full +5 pts.  That was clearly a mistake and was more about money than executing the system.

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06/04 Trading Recap

Trade #1 – Short 1081.75, Buy 1081.50.  This was almost percent r short signal at 9:30.  In the last seconds the trade was taken away.  Result: +$50.

Trade #2 – Buy 1082, Sell 1082.  After the almost 9:30 trade failed, the signal was given at 9:35.  I faded this and the trade had an unrealized gain of +4.25 pts to come all the way back to stop me out.  The worst thing was it was a total stop run as it only stayed down there for a like a mili-second before resuming the uptrend and hitting the desired target.  Result:  Scratch.

Trade #3 – Short 1086, Buy 1079.25.  Although not a mechanical signal (because there was no confirmation), the was an almost percent r signal on the 15 min chart.  Worked beautifully as it was the top of the market and proceeded to drop 26 pts.  I had a feeling that it might be a one sided day but just didn’t have the stamina to hold.  Result: +$675.

Trade #4 – Buy 1080.50, Sell 1080.  Result: -$50.

Trade #5 – Buy 1081.50, Sell 1080.  Result: -$150.

Trade #6 – Buy 1078.75, Sell 1075.75.  Result: -$300.

Trade #7 – Buy 1073.50, 1072, Sell 1071.25 (4).  Result: -$250.

Trade #8 – Buy 1064.75, Sell 1062.75.  Result: -$200.

Trade #9 – Buy 1063.25, Sell 1061.25.  Result: -$200

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06/03 Trading Recap

Trade #1 – Buy 1101.75, Sell 1100.75.  Percent r long signal.  It got to +2.25 pts and I just pulled off a little early since it got so close to the break-even strike and was clearly not working.  Result: -$100.

Trade #2 – Buy 1099.50, Sell 1102.50.  15 min percent r chart gave a long that I was too slow to get into.  Got in 2 pts late but the trade got it’s ultimate target.  Result: +$300.

Trade #3 – Buy 1191.75, Sell 1191.75.  100% IB extension was 1191.25.  The mkt was trending down but felt like do for a reversal.  I bailed solely on fear.  Result:  Scratch.

Trade #4 – Buy 659.8, Sell 659.8.  These next 2 trades were attempts to get long because of the reversal at the 100% IB ext.  Also the TF gave a short signal on a green bar, where the ES gave a red bar (nullifying the signal because they fail so often).  Knowing that trade fails, I faded it trying to get long.  This trade got +1.5 which I then moved the stop to break-even.   This was a good move as the trade would have eventually reach -2 pts.  Result:  Scratch.

Trade #5 – Buy 659.8, Sell 662.8.  This was another play at the previous trade.  I essentially bought on it’s way back up as I noticed it’s resilliency.  Result:  +$300.

Trade #6 – Buy 1102.75, Sell 1102.75.  Stupid Trade.  Result:  Scratch.

Trade #7 – Short 1101.50 (1), Buy 1103.50 (1).  Result:  -$100.

PnL: +$400

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06/02 Trading Recap

Trade #1 – Short 1075.75, Buy 1073.25.  This was a mechanical %r short signal from the ES chart.  However, this was not from a “close” but from a short signal on the open of the bar.  I took it off for +2.5 because I just felt like it was choppy and might bounce back a good bit.  The trade would go on to get exactly +5 pts.  Result: +$250.

Trade #2 – Short 1074.75, Buy 1074.75.  Got in this as I thought I was about to get a mechanical short signal but it ended up not giving in in the last couple of seconds.  Result:  Scratch

Trade #3 – Buy 1172.50, Sell 1174.50.  After having closed the gap it appeared the price action was heading up.  Plus the ES 5 min gap chart had “setup” but not confirmed.  Result:  +$200

Trade #4 – Short 1074.50, Buy 1074.50.  This trade got to +1.75 pts and since it was after a gap close I just didn’t have a ton of confidence that we’d continue to the short side.  This was a good instinct as it would have continued to a full stop.  Result:  Scratch

Trade #5 – Buy 1077.50, Sell 1079.25.  Mechanical percnet r signal.  The high was 1080.  I had a HVN at 1081.25.  After getting in, we spiked to 1080.75 and just though it was out of gas and therefore pulled it off early.  Result: +$175

Trade #6 – Buy 1078.50, Sell 1077.50.  Although, my instincts were being confirmed as we continued to pullback I thought I would put the trade back on just in case and at least I had banked $75.  Probably should have just trusted my instincts.  Result: -$100

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06/01 Trading Recap

If I take anything from this today execution related, it would be that 1. I need to stop chasing this one pt late crap. 2.  If I think the ES is truly in play vs. the TF it’s ok to go with that instinct, but do it early and not on the 2nd or 3rd opportunity, 3.  When u get a 8:35 percent r fade trade, make sure it’s a legit sig all around.

Trade #1 – Short 1080.25, Buy 1081.25.  This was my 8:35 percent r fade setup.  There were some definite red flags on this trade.  First although the tf gave the signal at 8:35, the ES couldn’t even give a red bar.  It was showing definite relative strength and there was a gap above still to close.  The chart also appeared to be in a strong up trend.  I got +2 pts on the trade and the support level was the VWAP but it never even crossed my mind to get out for break-even.  I got out of the trade early because of these fears.  Result: -$100.

Trade #2 – Short 1081, Buy 1083.  After I got out of the previous trade, the market immediately started to drop.  I thought this may be one of those instances where I just happened to cough up my cts at exactly the wrong time.  I decided to hop back in and give it the maximum risk allowed for the trade entry.  Result: -$200.

Trade #3 – Buy 1082, Sell 1080.50.  Well this is a trade I just flat out screwed up.  From my stats, I know that Mondays do have a propensity to trend.  The TF chart was no longer in play but the ES was trending up strong and had just given a percent r long signal.  The mechanical entry was 1081 and I got in after it moved 1 pt in the right direction.  However this was one pt late and meant I might have to endure 1 pt of extra heat.  Already being down $300 for the day, I decided a little too late I wasn’t up for this.  I got out of the trade at 1080.50 which just happened to be the low tick.  Another reason I got out is because with my percent r trades I’ve noticed lately that instead of my normal 3 pts of risk, the mkt lately has been going 3.5 or 4 pts the against the trade and then reversing to the desired direction. Well, so far at this pt in time it moved exactly 4 pts against my setup.  The fact is that setup just because it then sky-rocketed (on the 9:00 news announcement) to reach my target and beyond.  Results: -$150.

Trade #4 – Short 1092.50, Buy 1090.50.   This was a short at the ES restested Friday’s initial balance low.  It also appeared the ES had reached an exhaustion pt.  I wanted to stay conservative here though as the TF was finally giving a mechanical percent r long and the indexes were all in nice uptrends.  Result: +$200.

Trade #5 – Buy 1088.50, Sell 1085.50. Mechanical percent r long signal.  Results: -$300.

Trade #6 – Short 1088.75, Buy 1089.25.  Results: -$50.

Trade #7 – Buy 1091.75, Sell 1087.25.  This was by far my dumbest trade of the day.  Percent r had confirmed on the ES but not the TF.  I thought the ES was the chart in play and took this trade.  I was also just looking for action.  My execution was terrible on this as I bought 1.25 pts too high too. Results: -$450.

Trade #8 –  Short 1081.50, Buy 1077.25.  This was a mechanical percent r short signal.  I took this off as I was over $400 in unrealized gains and we were testing the day’s lows (1076.75).  In reality the market lately has been like a cruise missile into the close.  If you hold, you’re getting paid on these moves.  I could have held for a much bigger payday.  Results: +$475.

  • PnL:  -$625
  • High Win:  +$425
  • Avg Win: +$335
  • High Loss: -$450
  • Avg Loss:  -$208.33
  • Avg of Last 10 Winning Days: +$753.09
  • Avg of Last 9 Losing Days: -$685.88
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