Archive for April, 2010

4/28 Trading Recap

April 28, 2010 Leave a comment

Trade #1 – Starting off again with a skipped signal.  The short signal happened as price retraced and the signal to get short was given at 1183.  This was one of those weird spike downs so and quick retracements so it just seemed there was plenty more room the ES could retrace.  Also, the trade immediately moved against the desired direction.  This was a good decision as we hit 1186.50.  One thing I could have done is shorted near 1186 and still given it 1-2 pts.

Trade #2 – Long 1184.75, Sell 1184.75.  Today is a fed day so I knew it could just get choppy.  I thought we had a good chance of moving to the top of the IB at 1188.50 so I took a shot at going long.  After getting +1.5 pts I moved the stop to BE and got taken out on a move to retest the lows. +0

Trade #3 – Short 1182.50, Buy 1184.  Well after the original percent r trade only getting taken out by 2 ticks, I thought it might still have a good chance of getting it’s target.  Reaching 1182.50 got it into +1 pt territory so I know that gives it high chance of getting to +2.5 pt territory.  Well, the ES just double bottomed and I kept my stop small.  -$150

Trade #4 – Short 1191.50, Buy 1189.25.  This was an IB extension play.  Worked to +5 pts but I got +2.25 pts as it started to retrace fast.  I was planning on moving stop to at least break even after getting +5 pts so it was the right move since it retraced all the way to 1191.50 and then dropped like a rock again though. +$225

Trade #5 – Buy 1190, Sell 1188.  This was dumb play.  Hoping the ES would go up and although I had no legit signal, I was making ones up in my head.  -$200

  • PnL:  -$125
  • High Win:  +$225
  • Avg Win: +$225
  • High Loss: -$200
  • Avg Loss:  -$175
  • Avg of Last 2 Winning Days: +$1,000
  • Avg of Last 1 Losing Days: -$125
Categories: Uncategorized

4/27 Trading Recap

April 27, 2010 Leave a comment

Trade #1 – This trade is actually a passed trade.  At 9:55 the TF gave a buy signal but the ES had just been rejected strong at it’s declining VWAP.  Also it had crossed into overbought territory on the ES and got rejected hard there too.   The NQ was also in a serious downtrend too.  The TF was definitely thee outlier.  Well, even with all the trade would have been a winner.

Trade #2 – Long 1206.50, Sell 1207.50. This was definitely a more risky play.  Because the market started moving in the intended direction I jumped in late.  Way late.  The target for the percent r trade was going to be 1207.25.  I tried to get filled at 1205.25.  I ended up jumping in at 1206.50.  I doubled the contract size and targeted one pt.  I actually got pretty lucky that it got there as the high of the day was 1207.75. +$200

Trade #3 – Short 1205.75, Buy 1204.75, Buy 1201.75.  The 15 min percent R chart gave a short signal at 1205.75.  I wasn’t paying attention and actually missed all the heat on the trade.  I’m lucky the market gave me a chance to still get in the trade as often if you’re not on top of your game you can miss the trade.  I realized quickly I accidentally had double the size on.  I pulled 2 off immediately for +1 pt.  I held the other 2 for +4 pts even though I could have held them for the +5 and even more (way more). +$500

Trade #4 – Short 1189.75, Buy 1179.75.  I definitely don’t get these trades that often.  I got lucky on a couple of instances here.  First the short signal was given by percent r at 1188.  I was waiting for some positive movement on the trade but decided to risk 1.25 pts for a potential 6.25 pts.  Price came within 1 tick of the original stop topping at 1190.75 (3 pt stops for a reason).  I also got lucky because today was the first day of my trial with Alexander Trading.  Tom Alexander was definitely bearish and thought there was potential for a big down move with Breadth below -2000 (I think that’s right).  I had a maximum of 12 unrealized pts but dropped my stop to +10 pts.  I am very happy with the results.  +$1,000

  • PnL: +$1,700
  • High Win:  +$1,000
  • Avg Win: +$566.67
  • High Loss:  N/A
  • Avg Loss:  N/A
  • Avg of Last 2 Winning Days: +$1,000
  • Avg of Last 2 Losing Days:
Categories: Uncategorized

4/26 Trading Recap

April 26, 2010 Leave a comment

Trade #1 – Long 1213, Sell 1215.  Although it wasn’t obvious on a 5 or 15 min chart, the 1.25 range chart was definitely indicating the possibility of Range trade early in the morning for the day.  The bars were bouncing between support and resistance for hours.  I put the order just above the resistance and ended up taking 1.5 pts of heat on the trade.  I really didn’t watch it as I was concerned I may screw it up.  I do need to watch these in the future though just to go through some of the emotions and then hopefully put myself in the position to be less emotional in general.  When I got into this trade I also immediately put a short in at 1216.25 but later took that off.  That was a mistake as I would have shorted 1 tick below the day’s high.  I only would have targeted a couple pts but it still could have been a great trade.

Trade #2 – Long TF 737.3, Sell 738.3.  Friday’s POC was 1207.75.  The ES bottomed at 1207.50.   Also at the same time the 15 min ES chart crossed into oversold territory.  With the confluence, I thought I could catch a pt from the TF and wanted to make sure I didn’t get greedy as this trade had to carry into after-hours territory.

  • PnL:  +$300
  • Avg Win: +$150
  • Avg Loss:  N/A
Categories: Uncategorized

4/23 Trading Recap

April 24, 2010 Leave a comment

Trade #1 – Short 1204.25, Buy 1202.50.  This was as textbook an entry I can for fading a 9:35 percent R signal.  I put the entry exactly 1 pt above the close of the 9:35 bar and got filled pretty quickly.  This definitely is a challenging trade because I am essentially fading my system, but time and again it usually works.  I did really well adjusting my target on this as I had 3 pt target which we touched (but no fill), so I pulled the trade off for +1.75 pts which was a good move.

Trade #2 – Buy 1207.50, Sell 1206.50.  After being pretty patient all day (focused most attention on options trading), I kind of lost it here at the end of the day.  Percent R gave a long signal at 1206.50.  Any other day but Friday, I take this but Fridays are usually no good for percent r trades.  But because the trade was long (and the market only goes up) and because it immediately started moving in the desired direction I hopped in one pt late.  Well for whatever reason, I cough up the trade at the entry which was horribly stupid (as I know it needs to go negative to be bad). I needed to have more patience on this trade without a doubt.

Trade #3 – S 1206.50, B 1207.50.  Really couldn’t have been a stupider move to short on a day like today.  I thought because it was Friday and most percent r trades fail on Fridays I could make money but I need to learn to really pick my shorts more wisely in this market.

Trade #4 – B 1208, S 1209 S 1210.  I bought double my size on this trade.  I really should have been more patient and held it into the close but when you have on double you normal size you usually do things like pull it off too early.

Trade #5 – B 739, S 738.350.  This was just praying the market would get extended at the end of the day and really push into the close.  Not so good.

Categories: Uncategorized

4/22 Trading Recap

April 23, 2010 Leave a comment

Trade #1 – Short 1189.50, buy 1190.50.  I’ll learn in this market to not short.  When I get trend signals down, just ignore them unless it’s an exceptional day like last Friday.  This signal didn’t even come from the TF chart so I should have just skipped however it came from the 5 min RTH chart which has been working lately.  I took the short but because it was not really a legit signal I pulled the plug quick.

Trade #2 – Short 1194.25, buy 1192.25.  This was not a legitimate signal either.  However on the 15 min we setup but did not confirm.  It still looked like it could be a legit trade.  It worked pretty well but the market is just too bullish to sustain any bearish moves right now.

Trade #3 – Long 1193.75, sell 1193.75.   This was my first legitimate mechanical signal of the day.  I bought 2 at first but then liked the consolidation so much that I took a stab at another 2.  After being in the trade for 30 more minutes I grew tired (especially with double the size).  Also Obama was speaking in an hr so figured the markets would probably be range bound until then.  It was a good thing I got out as the markets ended up spiking down to 1189.  It’s too bad though because the TF did not.

Trade #4 – Short 1296.25, buy 1293.50.  1296 was a serious line in the sand.  The market ran straight up 20 pts today from it’s lows.  At the end of the day you had one of those feelings that it was just going to do nothing but go up.  I saw price “explode” on the dom at 1296 so I shorted.  In hindsight there was probably no reason to not just buckle up and hold this trade into the close.

Categories: Uncategorized

4/21 Trading Recap

April 22, 2010 Leave a comment

Today was as much about the trades I took as the ones I didn’t take.  One thing I noticed well today was that the morning rally occurred on really below avg volume but when we sold off that was on avg to above avg volume.  The mkt did subsequently tank (and then rally) but it was not exactly smooth on the way down.

Trade #1 – Not sure I had a good reason to skip except volume was low on the the rally and then picked up (relatively) on the downside.  The 15 min chart had also already give 2 “almost” signals that worked out really well.  What was working for the trade was that the TF had just crossed into oversold territory on the 5 min.  Also, in my mind I contemplated that the signals had worked out so well on the first 2 almosts that maybe the third signal would be money too.  The buy was 1203.75 and the high was 1206.  That’s +2.25.  Had I traded this mechanically that’s a $300 loser.

Trade #2 – Long 1199 on a 100% extension of the IB.  Also the ES was indicating volume exhaustion spikes.  Took off at 1202 for +3 pts but could have gotten another 3 pts.

Trade #3 – Skipped a short signal on the 5 min at the end of the day.  This was after a strong push down and equally quick snap back.  The trade never got into positive territory so it was a good skip as it also rallied essentially into the close.

Categories: Uncategorized

4/20 Trading Recap

April 20, 2010 Leave a comment

Trade #1 – Short TF 714.1.  Cover 714.  This was just a reactionary trade.  I looked down and saw a long green bar that I thought was 9:25-9:30 however it was from the first 10 seconds of the 9:30 bar.  I happened to be a couple of ticks ahead so I put stop +1 tick.

Trade #2 – Short ES 1197.75, cover 1200.25.  This was just a bad trade.  Probably chalk it up to impatience and wanting to get in the market.  The ES 1.25R chart gave a percent r short signal, but I have no stats on the success of this trade.  If anything, from just watching I would say it doesn’t work most of the time.

Trade #3 – Buy ES 1199.50, sell 1201.  I bought here based on a large volume spike on the 1.25R chart.  The bar was red so it was a contrarian trade.  I took it off based on a +1000 tick reading.  This was a mistake as the market only pulled back to 1199.75 but continued to rally the rest of the day.

Trade #4 – Short ES 1201, cover 1203.25.  Shorted based on a +1000 tick reading.  Big mistake.  As stated before, the market rallied all day.  Also, this was just a bad trade because I only took based on the bad performance of my earlier impulse trades.  This is where there is a serious snow ball syndrome.  One bad trade often leads to another bad trade.  I haven’t taken a +1000 tick fade in months but just wanted action.

Trade #5 – Buy 1202.75, sell 1202.50.  Bought based on a percent r signal.  This was the only legit trade signal all day and I still figured out a way to mess it up.  Went to gas station to grab a soda, came back and thought I had the criteria to move stop to break even.  That was wrong.  For some reason on this trade I was flat out scared though.  The market had put a pretty strong rally from the bottoms with no real pull back.  It hit a high of 1105 (which I had 1106 as R) and moved down.  In all honesty, I really thought the pullback was going to be bigger.  One thing going for this trade though was the fact that the buy was given at the IB high which is usually good support.

Trade #6 – Buy 1101.50, sell 1103.50.  I want to hold this until 1107 as there was a VAL there and an open gap there however I had to respect the potential of a Double Top so after hitting 1104.50 (1105 prior high) and retracing I had to pull the plug.  Well, the market continued to chop for a little longer but really did not pull back much farther than my 1103.50 where I coughed up my cts.  The market pretty much reversed there and went up to 1105.50 which left me giving up a potential $200 profit.

Trade #7 – Buy 1103, sell 1103.  Because nothing had happened with the original percent r trade (no stop, no target, no BE) I decided to give the trade another shot (third times a charm right?).  Well, I became fearful of longs taking profits into the close so I got out.  See prior trade for how the day finished out.

What I really hope to take from today is when I don’t trade my signal, I am not succeeding.  For the most part I do have face the facts and see that I’m not adding a whole lot of value to the system right now.  Also, the biggest thing killing me right now are the impulse trades.

Categories: Uncategorized